If HOKA is more than 30% of your footwear revenue, read this carefully. According to Karnan Associates data presented at The Running Event, in the 12 months through September 2025, HOKA's dollar sales in the run specialty channel were down 7.4%. Brooks was down 6.8%. New Balance fell 4.6%. Together, the five brands that dominated run specialty for the past half-decade declined a collective 7.4% in that channel.

Meanwhile, Nike was up 35.4% in run specialty. On was growing. Topo was surging. The run specialty landscape is shifting underneath a category that many independents built their entire buying strategy around. Brand concentration risk — having too much revenue tied to one or two brands — is now one of the most significant operational vulnerabilities in run specialty retail.

-7.4%
HOKA dollar sales in run specialty channel, 12 months through Sept 2025
-6.8%
Brooks dollar sales in run specialty channel, same period
+35.4%
Nike dollar sales in run specialty channel — the brand most stores wrote off
$145.95
Run specialty average selling price — 40% above all-channel average, a premium worth protecting

Why the HOKA Story Matters for Every Independent

HOKA's growth story was one of the most dramatic in specialty retail history. The brand went from a niche maximalist shoe to a cultural phenomenon to a dominant run specialty force in about a decade. Many independents built their floor plan around it. HOKA was safe. HOKA was growing. HOKA justified a whole wall.

What followed is what always follows a category-defining brand at peak penetration: the growth slows, the design language starts to look familiar, the markdowns start, and the full-price story erodes. By 2025, SportsVerse was documenting declining average prices on HOKA models and describing the brand as being "left behind" by On's growth trajectory and Nike's resurgent running category.

This isn't a HOKA obituary. The brand still has strong retail relationships and meaningful share. But the trajectory is a warning for any retailer who has more than 25–30% of their footwear revenue tied to any single brand.

The DTC Channel Threat Is the Longer Story

HOKA's management has stated publicly that their goal is to get to 50-50 between DTC and wholesale. According to SportsVerse, wholesale represents 65% of HOKA's business currently with DTC at 35%. On is at 40% DTC and growing. Brooks is more wholesale-committed, but even Brooks operates a robust DTC channel.

Every dollar a customer spends on HOKA.com instead of your store is a dollar that never came through your door. When a brand builds a strong DTC identity, they're building customer relationships that belong to the brand, not to you. The customer who knows she's a HOKA Clifton runner will buy the next Clifton wherever it's most convenient. The customer who knows she trusts your store to fit her correctly will buy whatever shoe you recommend — from whatever brand you carry.

This is the existential framing. Your competitive moat isn't any specific brand. It's the trust relationship with the customer. If your marketing has trained customers to think "I'm a HOKA person" instead of "I'm a [Your Store] person," you're building the brand's customer relationship, not your own.

What Brand Diversification Actually Looks Like

Diversification doesn't mean adding 10 brands to your floor. It means being intentional about where your revenue comes from and building in protection against any single brand's cycle.

A healthy brand mix for most run specialty stores might look like:

  • Anchor brands (15–25% each, max 2): Your consistently strong performers that customers trust and staff can sell with confidence. Brooks, HOKA, New Balance are typical anchors. No single anchor should exceed 25–28% of footwear revenue.
  • Core brands (8–15% each, 3–4 brands): Reliable performers with specific customer segments. Saucony for lighter-weight runners. ASICS for technical runners who track everything. On for the fashion-forward premium customer.
  • Growth brands (5–10% each, 2–3 brands): Emerging or resurgent brands with a story to tell and differentiated product. Nike in run specialty right now. Topo. Lems. Brands the RIA noted specialty retailers are successfully testing to stand out.
  • Story brands (1–5% each, 1–2 brands): Small or local brands that reinforce your independent identity. A regional brand, a brand founded by a runner you know, a brand that does meaningful work in your community.

Nike in Run Specialty in 2026

Nike's 35.4% growth in run specialty deserves attention. Many independent retailers wrote off Nike in the specialty channel years ago — the brand went DTC-heavy, alienated wholesale partners, and seemed to deprioritize run specialty relationships. The 2025 data shows that's changing.

Nike's Vomero Plus and Pegasus Premium have been cited as bright spots in Nike's performance turnaround. The brand's running category is growing with double-digit sales growth and high-price-point releases that actually compete in run specialty's average selling price territory. If you don't carry Nike performance product at all, it's worth a conversation with your Nike rep about what's actually available in the specialty channel now.

Protecting Your Customer Relationship Across the Brand Cycle

The practical implication of DTC brand growth is this: you need to market the store, not the brands. Every email that says "New HOKA Clifton arrivals" is training your customer to think about HOKA first and your store second. Every email that says "Our fall shoe wall is set — here's what our team is most excited about and why" is training your customer to think about your expertise first.

This isn't about avoiding brand mentions. It's about brand hierarchy in your communication. Your store's personality, judgment, and recommendation are the product. The brands are what you carry this season.

A few practical moves:

  • Lead every product email with a staff recommendation, not a brand announcement. "Our fit specialist Sarah has been running in the new On Cloudsurfer for three weeks. Here's her take." Positions you as the curator, not the distributor.
  • Create a "store pick" designation on your floor for your team's top recommendation regardless of brand. It signals editorial independence and gives customers a clear signal about where to start.
  • Track your customer's purchase history against the brand, not just the shoe. When HOKA releases a new Clifton and you email the customer who bought the last one, that's smart. When you email the customer who bought the last Clifton AND tell them "we also want you to try this New Balance 1080 because here's what it does differently" — that's building your customer relationship independent of any brand.

Vendor Co-Op: The Underused Margin Recovery Tool

While you're thinking about brand relationships, here's one that most independent retailers miss: vendor co-op marketing funds. HOKA's "Fly Human Fly" campaign and Brooks' retail training programs both include co-op components available to qualifying retailers. Most stores either don't know about them, don't ask, or don't qualify because they haven't tracked the right metrics.

Co-op funds typically require documentation of your sales volume, sell-through rates, and marketing activities. Start tracking these if you aren't. Ask every brand rep what co-op is available to stores at your volume level. In a margin-compressed year, co-op is free money you've already earned.

For more context on the brands shaping run specialty right now, see our guide on the best running shoe brands for independent retailers. For the inventory management strategy that supports healthy brand diversification, read our piece on inventory management for running stores. And if you want to understand the competitive forces driving these brand shifts, our 2026 retail trends overview covers the broader landscape.